GRIP Forecast 2024 – Politics

The GRIP team looks into the crystal ball and does some plain speaking about what the future might bring – this time with some candid thoughts on politics and geopolitics.

Carmen Cracknell, Senior Reporter

Very hard to predict to be honest.

I wouldn’t want to influence events with my uninformed insights!

Jean Hurley, Commissioning Editor

Regretfully, I agree with Thomas that Trump will succeed in the US election, a minority government will emerge in the UK, and immigration will continue to be a dominant issue.

Julie DiMauro, US Content Manager

As the only American weighing in on these predictions I think that Biden will squeak by, thanks in part to the draconian abortion stance of influential Republican groups and individual politicians and Robert Kennedy breaking up the Republican vote (at least a little).

With that said, red state governors and attorneys general, plus business groups such as Better Markets and the Chamber of Commerce will continue to press against sustainable funds like impact and integration funds and DEI initiatives at businesses – from their new-hire programs, internship regimes and promotion strategies.

Looking at geopolitics more broadly, the changing nature of multinational hostilities are presenting an ever-changing framework of sanctions on individuals, entities and jurisdictions.

Businesses need to not only navigate these ever-evolving lists and rules, they must demonstrate they have the policies, procedures and internal controls that can adequately monitor for internal and vendor misconduct in this risky arena.

Plus, they need a training approach that matches an appreciation for these risks to the business, based on its products, services, areas of operation, and client base.

Martin Cloake, Managing Editor

Elections in the UK and US will be the focus, and it’s quite possible both will produce a fudge that gives nobody a mandate to take any kind of firm direction.

This will continue to undermine faith in the political system and store up trouble for the future.

The real effects of the climate crisis will continue to grow as a policy issue that cannot be ignored or denied.

Martina Lindberg, Production Manager

Right-wing politicians and right-wing political parties will continue to win elections worldwide, with an increasing focus on immigration and integration in all countries that have taken in a significant number of immigrants in the past.

Thomas Hyrkiel, Head of Content Services

Russia and the Ukraine will likely end up at the negotiating table as the exhausting stalemate is set to continue during an unusually cold winter.

Donald Trump will win the US election. A Biden / Harris ticket is unelectable outside of the more progressive enclaves in the US.

A closer than expected election result in the UK, with Labour in a minority government, primarily because the polls are not capable of reaching the stalwart conservative electorate. Real drubbing for the SNP.

Immigration will be a big election issue in all developed countries.