Uncertainty has been the only constant in the global trading order during the first half of 2025, with countries and jurisdictions trying hard to negotiate and finalize last-minute deals with the current US administration before deadlines that are, so far, constantly changing.

President Donald Trump has, unapologetically, used tariffs, or the threat of them, as a pressure tactic against almost everyone who has an active trade partnership with the US.

Reactions have been different, from all-out submission to counter-efforts to beat the President at his own game. At present, any policy that gets you on Trump’s good side is good policy.

Pakistan presented an interesting example of the lengths to which countries are willing to go in order to avoid the consequences of hefty US tariffs. In a charm offensive aimed at securing a trade deal with Washington, Islamabad has backed Trump as a nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize, as well as showing ambition to become a global bitcoin mining hub, another favourite topic of Trump.

And it might pay off, as reports earlier this month suggested the two sides had ‘reached an understanding’ on what a potential trade deal could look like.

But not everyone is willing to submit, especially if there is a feeling that Washington is constantly moving the goal posts and not playing by the rules.

The EU bloc has floated the most ambitious counter-strategy so far, where leaders recently discussed the idea of establishing a new world trade order that does not include the US.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the bloc’s leaders in late June they could benefit from joining the Asian-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership bloc (CPTPP).

“This is a project where I think we should really engage, because CPTPP and the European Union is mighty,” she was quoted saying.

What is CPTPP?

The Agreement is an Asia-centric free trade agreement involving 12 countries: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam.

The UK and Japan are among the world’s largest economies, Singapore is a major financial hub in Asia, the presence of Australia and Canada an indication of the global potential of the group.

“CPTPP aims to reduce or eliminate tariffs on the vast majority of goods traded between member countries, fostering greater market access and economic integration,” according to the UK government’s Department for Business and Trade.

Having joined in December last year after years of negotiations, the UK already has the CPTPP in place with the likes of Japan, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and others. Canada and Mexico are expected to ratify the UK’s accession soon. And accession to “one of the world’s most progressive free trade agreements” means being part of and having access to “ambitious provisions for digital trade, e-commerce, trade in services and protection of intellectual property.”

If the EU, as an entire bloc, joined the CPTPP, that would take the number of member states to 39.

Collectively, the group’s member states have a GDP of more than $16 trillion, and with a number of new countries keen to join that figure will only increase over the coming years.

Now imagine the EU, as an entire bloc, joining the CPTPP. That would take the number of member states to 39, more than tripling its current size.

But it’s not just the size of the collective GDP, or the amount of potential free trade, that is drawing the EU’s attention. There is more to it.

For Europe, the CPTPP offers something that the US, at least under the current Trump administration, has failed to offer. It’s about stability and a willingness to play by the rules.

President von der Leyen was very clear about this when she first tabled the the idea of joining the CPTPP to EU leaders during the June summit. She said, joining the Agreement would “show to the world that free trade with a large number of countries is possible on a rules-based foundation.”

It was a obvious dig at the US, and a message that the bloc will not submit to Washington pressure, especially if there are other options and avenues for free trade available.

World trade volume

According to some estimates, the 39 countries of the EU and the CPTPP collectively count for 30% of the current world trade volume. That’s an impressive figure already.

Now, imagine lines on a world map connecting member states. Start from Australia and go up to Japan in the far east, then cross other Asian members before reaching the UK. Keep going west until you reach Canada. Then go south to Mexico in the centre, before finishing at Chile in South America.

It shows the shear geographic size of the free trading bloc member states are able to export to and import from. Joining it would mean “access to the second-largest investment destination in the world” and “an attractive market of 68 million consumers and the sixth largest economy globally,” according to figures from the UK’s Department for Business and Trade.

According to Ian Stuart, CEO of HSBC UK, the CPTPP has “some of the world’s most exciting growth markets” and there are exciting opportunities to trade with the likes Japan, Singapore, New Zealand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Australia.

But, beyond the lines on the map and the promises of endless potential for growth, how can a future EU-Asia trading bloc take shape? And what are the guarantees that everyone will play by the rule?

Three experts, Tim Groser (a former New Zealand trade minister), Steve Verheul (previously Canada’s chief trade negotiator) and John Clarke (until recently a senior EU trade negotiator) believe one place to start would be for all member states to “commit to a “Standstill Agreement” to keep their markets open to each other.”

In an exclusive commentary shared with POLITICO, the three said “an up-front pledge to uphold the established rules of multilateral trade” could help lay the foundations of a strong trading partnership.

“What it would do is send a massive signal to Washington that a very substantial part of the global economy, including nearly all the traditionally closest partners of the United States, remains committed to the rules-based system,” they said.

And there are reasons for the US to be concerned. For one, it is being singled out as the country which violates and disrupts the global trade order. But things can get even worse.

China, the US’s biggest trade rival globally, has submitted its application to join the CPTPP in 2021. There has, however, been little progress in the past four years, as current members states believe China does not meet the requirements on issues including market openness, and free movement of electronic data.

But Beijing already has separate free trade agreements with a number of members states from the CPTPP, and has not given up on its hopes of full membership.

What is clear is that a redrawing of the global trade order is being more actively considered than it has been for some time, and that redrawing will be solely at the behest of the US.