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ESMA flags growing prediction markets risks, but can they be policed?

In this photo illustration, Predictions market sites are shown on electronic devices on February 25, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
Photo Illustration: Scott Olson/Getty Images

ESMA’s report highlights a range of investor protection and market integrity concerns, drawing attention to the gap between regulation in Europe and the US.

Prediction markets have grown rapidly. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have evolved into multi-billion-dollar businesses, and traditional exchanges – Eurex, Euronext, CME Group, CBOE, ICE and Nasdaq – are increasingly active in the space. These exchanges are using prediction markets data to add analytical value, generating real-time signals on market

In ESMA’s

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